Tonight’s drawing in the Mega Millions multi-state lottery has an estimated jackpot of $1.1 billion. It’s only the third time in the game’s 20-year history that the jackpot has surpassed a billion dollars (or $648.2 million, if you take the cash option). A player who buys a single ticket with randomly selected numbers only has a 1 in 302,575,350 chance of winning all that money. You’re way more likely to get hit by lightning.
But if you still want to play, there’s a few things you should know that can improve —or worsen—your chances.
How to choose the right lottery numbers
A lot of people have a lucky number or a date they like to use when playing the lottery. But has that number historically shown up in drawings?
The Mega Millions lottery winner is chosen by randomly selecting five white balls with numbers on them out of a pool of 70 numbered balls, and then a gold-colored “MegaBall” out of a pool of 50. According to U.S.A Mega, the five numbers that came up the most in Mega Millions drawings over the last five years are 17 (drawn 48 times), 10 (47 times) 14 (47 times), 31 (47 times), and 4 and 7 (both drawn 44 times). The most common mega ball was 22 (drawn 28 times), followed by 11 (26 times), and 24 (25 times).
Of course, that’s just over the last five years: Given a longer time period and a bigger data sample, every single number should be chosen the same number of times; the whole point of randomly selecting balls is to average out differences over time.
Still, you might be inclined to pick one of those numbers, or to choose another “lucky” option. But think twice before you do. If other people choose the same numbers as you, you’ll have to share the jackpot with them—and people are more likely to choose a “lucky” number like 7, or a number between 1 and 31 because it represents a birthday. To get a slightly improved chance to take home the prize all by yourself, choose uncommon or ‘unusual’ numbers.
Then again, if everyone picks “unusual” numbers for this very reason, those numbers are going to be more likely to be shared, so it’ll actually be better to chose a “usual” number. See how hard it is to hack this system?
States with the most lottery winners
Some states are luckier than others. Since the game has started, players in 26 states have won the Mega Million jackpot, according to Jackpocket, a third party lottery app that allows users to buy tickets on their phone. New York has been the luckiest, with 40 jackpots won, followed by California with 33, and New Jersey with 22. It would seem that being from one of these states means you have a higher probability of winning, right?
Wrong. All those people in those states were lucky, but not because they had a higher probability of winning: People in populous states like New York, New Jersey and California win more often because they have more people playing. Your odds don’t change based on where you buy the ticket.
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The estimated $1.28 billion prize is for players who get their winnings through an annuity, paid annually over 29 years. Nearly all winners take the cash option, which for Friday’s drawing is an estimated $747.2 million.
How Do You Win?
Players in the Mega Millions can either have five numbers randomly generated for them, or they can pick their own five numbers between 1-and-70, as well as a sixth number, a “Mega Ball.”
If a player matches all five of their numbers and the “Mega Ball,” then they would walk away with the jackpot in the drawing.
Of course, the jackpot isn’t the only prize available in the game.
If a player matches all five numbers, but not the “Mega Ball,” then they would win $1 million, according to officials.
Matching four numbers plus the “Mega Ball” would net the player $10,000. Matching four numbers without the “Mega Ball” would earn the player a $500 prize.
Matching three numbers and the “Mega Ball” is worth $200.
Matching three numbers, or matching two numbers and the “Mega Ball,” will win a player $10.
Matching one number and the “Mega Ball” is worth $4, and matching the “Mega Ball” is worth a $2 prize.
Players in Illinois also have the option of adding a $1 “Megaplier” to their $2 ticket. That would double the value of any non-jackpot prize, including matching the five numbers in the drawing.
What Are the Odds of Winning?
According to officials, the odds of matching all five numbers and the "Mega Ball" number are 1-in-303 million.
By comparison, some estimates hold that you have a 1-in-9 million chance of being struck by lightning on two separate occasions.
Where Does This Jackpot Rank Among the Largest of All-Time?
The giant $1.28 billion jackpot remains the nation's third-largest prize and is the result of 29 consecutive drawings without anyone matching all of the game's six numbers. That last time someone hit the Mega Millions jackpot was April 15.
The only prizes that were larger were all worth at least $1 billion, including the all-time record jackpot of nearly $1.6 billion in a Jan. 2016 Powerball drawing.
The Mega Millions drawings in Oct. 2018 ($1.5 billion) and Jan. 2021 ($1 billion) are the only other two jackpots to exceed hit the $1 billion mark.
How Can I Buy Tickets?
Tickets cost $2, and can be purchased at thousands of retailers throughout Illinois and Indiana.
Locally, the Illinois Lottery website and app also allows players to purchase tickets online.
What if no one wins?
If no one wins the Mega Millions jackpot Friday night, lottery officials expect the prize will grow to $1.7 billion for the next drawing Tuesday, making it the nation’s largest lottery prize.