Odds of a flush in texas holdem

The Royal Flush is the Rarest Hand in Texas Hold'em

Q: What are the Odds of Hitting a Royal Flush in Texas Hold'em?

Table of Contents Show

• The Royal Flush is the Rarest Hand in Texas Hold'em
• 0.00139% Chance of Being Dealt a Straight Flush
• Why is it easier to make a flush than a straight?
• How often will an opponent flop a flush draw?
• Which makes more money: Flush vs. straight?
• What are the odds of getting straight flush?
• What are the odds of getting a royal flush?
• Does a straight beat a flush?
• What are the odds of getting pocket aces?
• What are the odds of an ace flop?
• What are the odds to hit a flush?
• Is a flush or a straight more likely?

A: What are the odds of hitting a royal flush in Texas Hold'em?

The royal flush is the magical unicorn of the poker world - players can literally go an entire lifetime without ever being dealt a royal flush.

The question - just how rare is it for a player to hit a royal flush?

Just as a recap, a Royal Flush occurs when you have a five-card hand that includes the 10, J, Q, K and A of the same suit. For instance, if you are dealt 10d-Jd and the board reads Qd-Ad-7s-7h-Kd, you would have one of those rare royal flushes.

So - what are the odds of hitting a royal flush?

In Texas Hold'em, there are a total of 2,598,960 different five card poker hands. This includes the four royal flushes (Diamonds, Spades, Clubs and Hearts).

So - the odds of hitting a royal flush would be 4/2,598,960, which would work out to 1/649,740.

So, you should hit a royal flush every 650,000 hands that you play or so.

It can be very hard to make money with a royal flush, as there is a good chance that your opponent has nothing.

Here is a rare occasion when a person has a Royal Flush and gets paid - this is still, in my opinion, the worst beat in the history of the World Series of Poker:

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0.00139% Chance of Being Dealt a Straight Flush

Q: What are the Odds of Hitting a Straight Flush in Hold'em?

A: The "straight flush" is the second strongest hand in Hold'em (or Omaha), ranking behind only the "Royal Flush".

The "straight flush" occurs when a hand makes five consecutive cards, all of the same suit.

For instance - let's say that you are holding:

2 of spades
3 of spades

The flop comes:

Ace of spades
4 of spades
5 of spades

This is a "straight flush". In this situation, you would have the "stone cold nuts", which means the best possible hand.

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So what are the odds of being dealt a "straight flush"?

Regardless of how many players are participating in a game of Hold'em, there are 36 hands that can make a straight flush (remember, we need to exclude the four hand that make a royal flush).

Now, there are 2,598,960 different hand combinations in Hold'em.

So, in order to calculate our odds of hitting a straight flush, divide the total number of straight flush hands (36) by the total number of possible hands (2,598,960) to get:

0.00139% chance of hitting a straight flush

or

1 in 72,192 chance of hitting a straight flush

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While the "straight flush" isn't as hard as hitting a "Royal Flush", it still occurs very infrequently in the game of poker.

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It is a common misconception that flush is more likely to hit. If you also believe that to be the case, then you are wrong. Well, maybe you are right, but it depends on which perspective you look at it. Let me explain.

As long as you start counting the hand from preflop, then you will hit the straight more often than flush. But if you have a flush draw on flop or turn, then you will hit a flush more often compared to when you have an open-ended straight draw, and you hit a straight.

There is a reason why flush has a higher ranking in poker than straight. It will hit less often. Look at this chance to win a straight and to hit a flush – from Wikipedia.

You will hit a flush every 0.20% of the time. So once every 509 hands.  While you will hit a straight about 0.40% of the time or once every 255 hands, so you will hit almost 2 straights for every 1 flush that you hit.

Why is it easier to make a flush than a straight?

But after all that I have written, why is it easier to hit a flush than a straight?
Well postflop, if you hold a flush draw, you have more outs to hit the draw than holding the open-ended straight draw and hitting the straight. You will have 9 outs to hit a flush on the flop or turn if you have a flush draw.
From flop to the river, we have 9 outs twice to hit a flush, which is roughly 38%, from turn to the river we have about 18% (9 outs once). On the other hand, if you hold an open-ended straight draw, you will have only 8 outs to hit it.

What many people are forgetting is that you will get the flush draw less often than you will open-ended straight draw. Getting a suited hand preflop doesn’t happen super often. You will have a flush draw on the flop only 5.1% of the time.

One thing that is often neglected is you not accounting in the times when you have a gutshot, and you hit it. It seems it doesn’t happen often, but you will usually have 4 outs to hit a straight, which is around 16% from flop to river. Not something we should forget about. On top of that, there are also some double gutters, which also gives you 8 outs to hit your straight.

So only looking from the postflop perspective, it can feel that it is easier to hit a flush than a straight, but as I explained, that can often be misleading. Straight will happen more often.

Let’s say you usually play connectors and therefore your chances to hit your straight draw increase. You would have flopped 8 outs straight draw (either open-ended or a double gutter straight draw) about 10.5% of the time on the flop.

How often will an opponent flop a flush draw?

A player will have a flush draw on the flop about 5.1% of the time strictly math speaking and accounting in all the hands. But we know that players don’t play every single hand, and they are more likely to fold more off suited hand than suited hands preflop.

All this makes an opponent hit a flush draw roughly 10% of the time on the flop.

Which makes more money: Flush vs. straight?

As expected, flush will make you more money. In my case, not double the amount, but you will make more money with it. Why not the double, you might wonder? Well, if you have a straight, usually you will be willing to stack off with top straight or second nut straight sometimes 3rd nut straight. But when it comes to flush, you will lose quite some money even if you hold a low flush, and it can be less than 3rd nuts. On top of that, not many players will be willing to stack off with the top two or a set on a possible flush board, while the same players don’t have a problem committing with the same hands on possible straight board.

All this reduces your winrate by a little. But you, as you can see from my graph, will still make substantially more profit with a flush compared to straight. They are both great hands; it is just that a flush is stronger.

Now your winrate will, of course, differ a bit. If you have nut flush yo will win more than my 2,000bb/100 hands. If you have a lower flush, then it will be lower. Now sometimes higher flushes will beat us. A scenario of when we hit a flush, and our opponent also hits a flush is not that uncommon, and if you multi table, it will happen on semi-frequent occasions.

The same goes for a straight. Nut straight will give you the most money of any straight. You will still make decent money with 2nd nut straight, just less.

Scenarios, where we hit backdoor straight, will be nicely profitable since it will be harder for an opponent to put us on a straight, as there was no apparent straight draw present when we started betting on the flop. If you want to read more about straight backdoor draws, I have this article I have for you.

What are the odds of getting straight flush?

Odds of hitting a straight flush is so low that it almost doesn’t make sense to write it in percentages. It is a 0.00139% chance you will hit a straight flush. This is 72,192:1 odds against hitting it. SO only once every 72,000 hands you will hit the second most powerful hand in poker.

What are the odds of getting a royal flush?

Hitting a royal flush is even harder than a straight flush. The royal flush is the strongest hand you can get in poker. Your chances of hitting it are 0.000154% of the time, or once every 650,000 hands (odds against of 649,740:1 to be precise).

I have been dealt quite many royal flushes in my poker career, and frankly, hitting one doesn’t feel special anymore. But I remember that when I hit it for the first time, I was ecstatic for some time. That is how rare the royal flush is.

Does a straight beat a flush?

Poker hand rankings go from strongest to weakest:

1. Royal flush
2. Straight flush
3. Four of a kind
4. Full house
5. Flush
6. Straight
7. Three of a kind
8. Two pair
9. One pair
10. No pair (high card)

You can see that straight doesn’t beat a flush, but it does beat many other hands, making it a powerful hand on right boards. When the board is not paired, and no flush can be present, then if you hold the highest straight, you will have the best hand.

What are the odds of getting pocket aces?

Chances of being dealt pocket aces are slightly less than 0.5%. Exactly once every 221 hands, you will get the rockets. The number of players on the table doesn’t matter. There are still 52 cards in the deck, no matter how many players are at the table.

If you wonder how often you can expect to win with AA depending on the number of opponents and different hands you are up against, then read this post.

What are the odds of an ace flop?

We all know it, that horrible feeling when you hope ace doesn’t show up on the flop, but it seems like it always does. It doesn’t always come. But you will see ace on the flop 42% of the time, which is quite often. But don’t worry on some occasions you will also hit two flushes, sets or straights yourself. That is why pocket kings have around 70% (and not only 58%) to win against Ax.

What are the odds to hit a flush?

Is a flush or a straight more likely?